GREENCYCLESII

T5.1 Dr. Aideen Foley

The aim of this project is to develop an Earth system model (ESM), including biogeochemical and socioeconomic processes at a global scale. Simple parameterizations will initially be used to approximate key processes but where required in order to improve the predictive capability of the model, more complex parameterizations will be developed. Uncertainties in future Earth system evolution to calendar year 2200 will be assessed, with particular attention being given to the effects of varying levels of complexity for model behaviour and the consequences of different levels of process understanding for predicted future Earth system states. In this way, the extent to which various processes contribute to uncertainty in the evolution of the coupled Earth system can be identified, and the possible effects of increased GHGs on the evolution of the coupled Earth system can be examined, leading to improved understanding of the evolution of the coupled Earth system on decadal-centennial timescales. The model will be used to develop a formal methodology for quantifying uncertainty in model outcomes.