GREENCYCLES II

WP5 - Coupled modelling



Leader : University of Cambridge - Dr Andrew Friend
Input to Science and Environmental Policy : WP5 - Briefing Paper

Objectives

The overall objective of WP5 is an improved understanding of the evolution of the coupled Earth system decadal-centennial timescales through the use of Earth System Models (ESMs) of different complexities.

Specific objectives are:

  • Development of a system of linkages and traceability across the hierarchy of GreenCyclesII ESM components.
  • Assessment of the consequences of different levels of complexity for model behaviour.
  • Investigation of climate-land surface feedbacks with respect to fire, tropical deforestation, and land use change.
  • Incorporation of anthropogenic activities into Earth system models.
  • Quantification of uncertainties in future Earth system evolution to calendar year 2200 taking into account level of process understanding and socio-economic feedbacks.
WP5 Word Cloud

Deliverables

Publications:

  • A joint WP5 position paper associated with MC3 will be published describing the state-of-the-art with respect to the evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations - for more details, see the MC3 webpage.
  • A second WP5 position paper, associated with MC4, will be published describing methodologies for integrating biosphere-mediated human impacts into ESMs - more details coming soon!

Scientific products:

  • A fully tested, documented, formatted, and compatible series of ESM components across a range of complexities, within a common framework, and with options to use different representations of key processes.
  • A rigorous quantification of the relationships between uncertainties in process understanding and predicted future Earth system states.

Inputs to science and environmental policy:

  • A major report aimed at policy makers and journalists which will address the possible future evolution of the Earth system to 2200 taking into account: (i) alternative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and (ii) alternative land use scenarios. As a minimum, outcomes for the distribution of climate variables, biological production, run-off, land cover, and air quality will be addressed.

Science Tasks

T5.1 Quantifying uncertainty in Earth system feedbacks to 2200
Fellow: Dr Aideen Foley (University of Cambridge)
Supervisor: Dr Andrew Friend (University of Cambridge)
Secondary Supervisor: Dr Georg Feulner (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

T5.2 Quantifying carbon-climate-ocean feedbacks using EMICs and ice core data
Fellow: Katherine Crichton (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
Supervisor: Dr Jérôme Chappellaz (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
Secondary Supervisor: Dr Laurent Bopp (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique)

T5.3 Feedback analysis and evaluation using the CLIMBER model
Fellow: Matteo Willeit (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Supervisor: Dr Andrey Ganopolski (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Secondary Supervisor: Dr Andrew Friend (University of Cambridge)

T5.4 Tropical deforestation, atmospheric convection, clouds, and carbon fluxes
Fellow: László Hunor Hajdu (University of Cambridge)
Supervisor: Dr Andrew Friend (University of Cambridge)
Secondary Supervisor: Prof Han Dolman (Vrije Universiteit)

T5.5 Global interactions of fire with plant types, land use, and climate change
Fellow: Ioannis Bistinas (Instituto Superior de Agronomia)
Supervisor: Prof José Pereira (Instituto Superior de Agronomia)
Secondary Supervisors: Prof Colin Prentice (Imperial College London), Prof Sandy Harrison (University of Reading), Prof Peter Cox (University of Exeter)

T5.6 Land use, biofuels, and global biogeochemistry
Fellow: Dr Guillaume Vilain (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Supervisor: Dr Georg Feulner (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
Secondary Supervisor: Dr Laurent Bopp (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique)

T5.7 Modelling Palaeo-Methane Concentrations
Fellow: Dr Aurélien Quiquet (University of Cambridge)
Supervisor: Dr Andrew Friend (University of Cambridge)
Secondary Supervisors: Dr Filipe Aires (Estellus), Prof Colin Prentice (Imperial College London)